Western Europe experienced the earliest modern economic growth and also had a uniquely high female age at first marriage – around 25 – from at the latest the fifteenth century. According to research by James Foreman-Peck and Peng Zhou, the West European marriage pattern was an essential reason for England''s precocious economic development culminating in the Industrial Revolution.
Their study, to be presented at the Royal Economic Society''s annual conference in Brighton in March 2016, explains that later marriage not only constrained the number of births but also provided greater opportunities for female informal learning, especially through ''service''. A high proportion of unmarried females between the ages of 15 and 25 left home and worked elsewhere, instead of bearing children, as in other societies.
This widened female horizons compared with a passage from the parental household directly into demanding motherhood and housekeeping. It also enabled skills and work discipline to be learned, passed on and built up over the generations within the family. The authors conclude:
''Over the centuries, the gradual rise of human capital raised productivity and eventually brought about the Industrial Revolution. This mechanism still plays an important role in developing countries in modern times – a good example is China where marriage age and birth have been controlled until recently.''
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A central question of economics is why some nations experienced economic growth and are now rich, when others have not and are poor. This study goes some way to answering this core question by estimating and testing a model of the English economy beginning four or five centuries before the first Industrial Revolution.
Western Europe experienced the earliest modern economic growth and also showed a uniquely high female age at first marriage – around 25 – from at the latest the fifteenth century. Whereas real wages actually began a sustained rise during the first Industrial Revolution, without the contribution of late marriage, average living standards in England would not have risen by 1870.
The researchers extend long time series evidence, some dating back to 1300, and test the hypothesis that this West European marriage pattern was an essential reason for England''s precocious economic development. Persistent high mortality in the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries and massive mortality shocks such as the Black Death lowered life expectations.
Subsequently, as survival chances improved, especially for children, a given completed family size could be achieved with a smaller number of births. In an environment without artificial birth control, a rise in the age at first marriage of females ensured this reduction in fertility.
Later marriage not only constrained the number of births but also provided greater opportunities for female informal learning, especially through ''service''. A high proportion of unmarried females between the ages of 15 and 25 left home and worked elsewhere, instead of bearing children, as in other societies. This widened female horizons compared with a passage from the parental household directly into demanding motherhood and housekeeping.
Throughout this period, the family was the principal institution for educating and training future workers. Schooling was not compulsory until 1880 in England. In the early nineteenth century, few children attended any school regularly and few remained at school for more than one and a half years. Such skills and work discipline as were learned were passed on and built up over the generations primarily by the family. This study shows how, over the centuries, the gradual rise of this human capital raised productivity and eventually brought about the Industrial Revolution.
Over past centuries, marriage and the family were an important engine of economic growth. This mechanism still plays an important role in developing countries in modern times – a good example is China where marriage age and birth have been controlled until recently.
Bringing Unified Growth Theory to the Data – James Foreman-Peck and Peng Zhou
